Three Horizons - Toekomstverkennen.nl

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Three Horizons: the future is already visible in the present

Balance between present, vision and transition

The Three Horizons framework, developed by Bill Sharpe and the International Futures Forum, helps organisations explore change and decide how to act on it. It looks at three patterns that exist side by side today: the system we know, the innovations that are beginning to disrupt it, and the future we would like to move towards. Signals of that future are often already visible in the present. Sharpe calls them pockets of the future.

What is the Three Horizons framework?

The framework is often drawn as three curves over time. The horizons are three ways of looking at the same situation, and they do not follow each other in sequence.

Horizon 1: the dominant system. This is how things work now: current structures, business models, policies and habits. It is stable and familiar, but it gradually loses fit with a changing context.
Horizon 2: emerging innovations. This is the space of transition, where new ideas, experiments and initiatives appear. Some only patch up Horizon 1. Others carry the seeds of something different.
Horizon 3: the desired future. This is the future system we want to move towards, based on values, aspirations and the pockets of the future we already see. It guides which innovations deserve support.

How organisations use it

In a workshop, participants map what is working and what is fading in Horizon 1, describe the future they want in Horizon 3, and identify which initiatives in Horizon 2 move towards it. This makes it easier to talk about change, innovation and long-term direction in a shared way.

What can you do with the Three Horizons framework?

Organisations pursue various goals with the Three Horizons framework:

Strategic planning: The framework gives organisations the ability to plan strategically across different timelines. This allows them to focus both on managing their current activities and on preparing for future change.
Innovation management: The Three Horizons model stimulates innovation at all levels. Organisations can invest in a targeted way in Horizon 2 and Horizon 3 to maintain a balanced portfolio of projects that covers both the short and the long term.
Risk management: By involving different horizons, organisations can manage risks better. They are not fully dependent on successes in Horizon 1 and have a strategically prepared approach to possible disruptions in the future.

Integrated approach

Like most methods, the Three Horizons framework works best in combination with other methods for exploring the future. For example together with trend analysis, weak signals or scenario planning:

Three Horizons & weak signals:

Weak signals refer to subtle, vague signs in an organisation's environment that may point to emerging trends or changes.
Three Horizons can capture weak signals by paying attention to Horizon 2 and Horizon 3, where radical innovations and new possibilities are explored.
Three Horizons provides the framework for identifying, interpreting and evaluating weak signals, especially in Horizon 2 and Horizon 3. It allows organisations to become aware of potential disruptions and innovative opportunities.

Three Horizons & trend analysis:

Trend analysis is the process of identifying and understanding the long-term developments that influence the market, technology and society.
Three Horizons helps embed trend analysis in strategic planning, particularly in Horizon 2, where new trends can lead to innovations.
Three Horizons and trend analysis are complementary. Trend analysis helps in understanding the external environment, and Three Horizons enables organisations to take targeted action based on those trends, taking different time horizons into account.

Three Horizons and scenario planning:

Scenario planning involves developing possible future scenarios based on different assumptions and variables.
Three Horizons provides an in-depth analysis of the current, transition and future phases, while scenario planning goes deeper into individual possible scenarios.
In practice, organisations can benefit from the synergy between the Three Horizons framework and scenario planning by first identifying the specific horizons using Three Horizons and then using scenario planning to explore the various future scenarios within each of those horizons in more depth. This combined approach strengthens organisations' ability to develop robust strategies in an ever-changing world.