Wild Cards

Wild cards: unexpected, high-impact and unpredictable

Wild cards are surprising and unexpected events that are considered highly unlikely. Until they actually happen, of course. Besides a high degree of improbability, wild cards also have a very high impact. Wild cards are events we do not see coming, but when they strike, they leave an impressive impact.

Wild cards complement trend analysis: where trends map gradual developments, wild cards are about sudden, unpredictable shocks.

Taleb's insights: from framing to blind spots

In 2008 Nassim Nicholas Taleb published The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, in which he shared some crucial insights about wild cards (which he calls black swans). One of them is framing, where expectations about certain events are initially considered unrealistic. Think of experts who warned early about an economic crisis but were not taken seriously until the financial crisis broke out in 2007. Or, more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic, to which the Netherlands initially responded with reluctance to warnings. Scientists warned early about the possibility of a global health crisis, but the severity was not fully acknowledged until the pandemic actually spread.

Taleb also points to society's growing blindness to change, especially among the more highly educated. An abundance of information leads to ignoring what is unknown, so that relevant signals of change are overlooked. Blind spots, such as underestimating wild cards, are at the heart of foresight because they expose the vulnerability of organisations. By acknowledging and exploring these blind spots, organisations can better prepare for unexpected events, making them more resilient in a rapidly changing world.

Examples of wild cards from the past

Wild cards manifest themselves in different ways, such as tipping points that build up slowly, scientific breakthroughs, natural phenomena and even imaginary wild cards that threaten but do not materialise. Serendipity is also a source of wild cards. Examples are the discovery of penicillin (Fleming), LSD (Hofmann), dynamite (by Nobel), America (by Columbus) and Viagra (by Osterloh).

These events, too, were hard to predict, had significant consequences and posed major challenges in dealing with unexpected turns in history:

• Discovery of penicillin (1928)
  The accidental discovery of penicillin by Alexander Fleming was a turning point in medicine. It transformed the treatment of bacterial infections and saved countless lives. The sudden and unexpected nature of this discovery, together with its immense impact on healthcare, makes it a wild card.

• Fall of the Berlin Wall (1989)
  The collapse of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent end of the Cold War were events many had not foreseen. It changed not only geopolitical dynamics but also the world order. These unexpected political shifts make it a classic example of a wild card.

• Attack on the World Trade Center (2001)
  The terrorist attacks of 9/11 in the US caused a global shock and had enormous consequences for security protocols, geopolitical relations and daily life. The improbability of such large-scale attacks in the heart of the United States made it a wild card.

• Rise of the internet (1990s)
  The explosive growth of the internet had profound consequences for communication, trade and culture. While some may have seen the internet's potential, the speed and scale of the transformation were surprising. It fundamentally changed the way people live and work.

• Financial crisis of 2008
  Despite some warning signs, the severity of the financial crisis was not fully understood until the moment major financial institutions collapsed. It exposed shortcomings in the financial system and caused global economic consequences, which is why it is considered a wild card.

• COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2020)
  The outbreak of the coronavirus and its worldwide spread resulted in an unprecedented health crisis. Although scientists had warned for years about the possibility of pandemics, the severity of COVID-19 was initially not fully understood. The speed at which it spread, the immense health impact and the global disruption of societies make the pandemic an unmistakable wild card. It affected not only healthcare but also economies, travel patterns and the way people work and communicate.

Working with wild cards

By working with wild cards, you develop flexible thinking and formulate strategies that can be deployed in the event of sudden events. It puts you in a better position to handle change and offers a valuable grip on the future. These are three steps that are often part of working with wild cards:

1. Choose your wild card
   Select a wild card that resonates with your interests or use suggestions from platforms such as iKnowfutures.

2. Create a mind map
   Visualise the possible consequences of the wild card with a mind map, considering both first- and second-order effects. Instead of a mind map you can also use a causal diagram.

3. Find intervention points
   Determine where your organisation can intervene and how you can act at crucial points.

Using wild cards

• Deepen scenarios with wild cards
  Add wild cards to your scenario planning for a deeper exploration of possible futures.

• Basis for scenarios
  Use wild cards as a starting point for developing scenario stories, allowing you to sketch extreme images of the future.

• Icebreakers for groups
  Wild cards offer an accessible way to get acquainted with foresight. Let groups reflect on unexpected events from the past and come up with new wild cards themselves as a warm-up for thinking about trends and scenarios.

Whether it concerns practice-oriented workshops or in-depth research, we offer tailor-made solutions to help you benefit from working with wild cards. Get in touch and discover how we can support you.