Horizon scanning

Horizon scanning: a systematic approach to change.

Horizon scanning is a methodical approach used to detect early signals of potentially important developments. It involves systematic research and mapping of the opportunities and threats that may arise. The focus is often on emerging technologies and their effects on different sectors. Horizon scanning is used to determine what is constant, what is changing and what is continuously subject to change (OECD, 2015).

Researching change

It involves researching new and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems and trends. As with most other foresight methods, the "limits of current thinking" are often stretched or crossed. Horizon scanning is based on desk research, but can also be carried out by interviewing small groups of experts. It often serves as a basis for trend analysis and scenario development.

Why is horizon scanning important?

Organisations use horizon scanning for various purposes:

1. Anticipating change: By identifying early which changes are taking place, organisations can respond proactively and prepare for what the future brings. Horizon scanning offers a head start, allowing companies to adapt and position themselves for success.
2. Managing risks and seizing opportunities: Identifying potential threats enables organisations to manage risks and adjust their strategies. At the same time, insight into emerging opportunities offers the chance to lead the market and gain a competitive advantage.
3. Stimulating innovation: Horizon scanning encourages not only understanding change, but also embracing innovation. By staying informed about new technologies and trends, organisations can develop creative solutions and foster a culture of continuous improvement.

Five key ingredients of horizon scanning

These are the five key ingredients for using horizon scanning successfully:

1. Systematic research: Horizon scanning starts with thorough, systematic research into a wide range of sources. This includes not only scientific literature and reports, but also news articles, blogs and social media. By analysing different sources, we gain a comprehensive picture of the changes taking place in various domains.
2. Identifying signals: The process involves identifying signals: small, often subtle indications of emerging trends or shifts in the environment. These signals can range from technological breakthroughs and socio-cultural shifts to economic developments. The ability to recognise these signals allows organisations to look ahead and adapt to changing circumstances.
3. Mapping opportunities and threats: An essential part of horizon scanning is mapping the opportunities and threats that have been identified. This means analysing the possible impact of the signals and trends found on the sector and on the organisation itself.
4. Interaction with experts: In addition to desk research, horizon scanning also involves interaction with experts from different fields. Interviewing small groups of experts provides in-depth insights and different perspectives on emerging developments. These experts contribute to a holistic understanding of the changing environment.
5. A continuous process of learning and adapting: Horizon scanning is not a one-off event, but rather a continuous process of learning and adapting. It requires an organisational culture that is open to change and innovation. By carrying out horizon scans regularly, organisations remain agile and can respond quickly to new information and developments in their environment.

Horizon scanning as a basis for other foresight techniques

Horizon scanning is an ongoing process that often serves as a source of information for other methods and techniques for exploring the future, including trend analysis, scenario planning, wild cards and early warning systems.

• Horizon scanning as a basis for trend analysis: Horizon scanning is an essential building block for trend analysis. By systematically scanning the horizon for emerging signals and trends, it provides valuable input for identifying long-term developments. An accurate trend analysis based on horizon scanning allows organisations to plan ahead and adapt to changing circumstances, which is crucial for lasting success. Read more about trend analysis.
• Wild cards and unexpected developments: Horizon scanning goes beyond predicting known trends; it also offers insight into possible "wild cards", unpredictable and disruptive events. Exploring the edges of the known and analysing potential wild cards helps organisations prepare for the unexpected. Read more about wild cards.
• Scenario planning: Based on signals, trends and wild cards, organisations can sketch different scenarios that cover a wide range of possible futures. Scenario planning helps develop strategies that are robust under different conditions. Read more about scenario planning.
• Early warning systems: Horizon scanning acts as the backbone of early warning systems, which allow organisations to respond proactively to changes in their environment. By continuously exploring the horizon and integrating the information gathered into early warning systems, organisations can quickly pick up warning signals and anticipate possible disruptions. Read more about Early Warning Systems.

Do it yourself or outsource?

Some organisations choose to carry out horizon scanning in-house because of their close involvement in their specific business environment. It allows teams to build in-depth knowledge of the industry, market trends and the unique challenges the organisation faces. Scanning the horizon yourself offers organisations the chance to respond directly and quickly to emerging developments, and the internal team can integrate the insights seamlessly into the organisation's strategy. It also fosters a culture of continuous improvement and innovation within the organisation.

On the other hand, some organisations choose to outsource horizon scanning to external agencies. This can be due to the need for objectivity and a fresh view of the market. External agencies often have broad sector experience and can offer a more holistic perspective. They also have the expertise and resources to apply advanced analysis techniques and access a wider network of experts. Outsourcing horizon scanning can also be cost-effective, as it allows organisations to focus on their core activities while specialised professionals handle the foresight work.

We are ready to support you in exploring the future. We can train your staff in horizon scanning or take horizon scanning off your hands entirely. Contact us today for a no-obligation conversation about how horizon scanning can help your organisation build a resilient future.